How UFC betting odds work: a New York guide from the moneyline to round betting

Betting on UFC in New York: legal, and back at MSG

New York lifted its long-standing ban on professional MMA in early 2016. That November, UFC 205 at Madison Square Garden became the first UFC event in the state, on November 12, 2016. Conor McGregor knocked out Eddie Alvarez to become the first fighter in UFC history to hold two belts at once.

MSG is now a fixture on the UFC calendar. UFC 334 is scheduled there for November 14, 2026, headlined by heavyweight champion Ciryl Gane against Josh Hokit, with Kayla Harrison against Amanda Nunes for the bantamweight title in the co-main event, according to Cageside Press.

Betting on UFC fights is legal at New York’s 8 live mobile sportsbooks. You must be 21+ and physically in New York when you bet. Cards can change late, so check the bout is still on before you place a bet.

How UFC odds work: the moneyline

Most UFC bets start with the moneyline: pick the fighter who wins, by any method.

• Minus odds (favorite): the amount you risk to win $100. At -300, $300 wins $100, and a $30 bet wins $10.
• Plus odds (underdog): what $100 wins. At +240, $100 wins $240, and a $25 bet wins $60.

Your stake comes back on top of the profit. A winning $25 bet at +240 returns $85.

Vegas odds for UFC, explained as probability

“Vegas odds” is shorthand for these American moneylines. The fastest way to judge them is to turn them into implied probability:

• Minus odds: odds ÷ (odds + 100). -300 = 300 ÷ 400 = 75%.
• Plus odds: 100 ÷ (odds + 100). +240 = 100 ÷ 340 = 29.4%.

Together that is 104.4%. The extra 4.4% is the book’s margin. If you think Fighter B wins more than 29.4% of the time, the underdog price has value.

What does +135 mean in a UFC betting line?

Take a close flyweight fight:

+135 means a $100 bet on Fighter D wins $135, for a total return of $235. A $40 bet wins $54.

Fighter D is the underdog, but not by much. The book rates the fight close to 60/40. To bet Fighter C you would risk $148 to win $100.

Plus numbers also appear on props. If “fight goes the distance” is +135, the book thinks a decision is less likely than a finish.

Who sets UFC odds, and why they move

Sportsbook traders set the opening line from fighter records, styles, reach, age, activity and recent form. Then the market takes over.

UFC lines can move sharply, because:

• Fight-week news such as injuries, short-notice replacements and missed weight changes the matchup.
• Public money piles onto popular fighters, especially stars.
• Limits are lower than on NFL or NBA games, so a few sharp bets can move a line.

If you like a fighter, compare the price at two or three books. A move from +135 to +160 is worth $25 on every $100 bet.

Round betting in UFC: the main prop markets

UFC has fewer main markets than team sports, so props carry more weight. Round betting is the biggest group.

Total rounds

Total rounds is the UFC version of an over/under. A three-round fight might be set at 2.5 rounds.

The half round is the key detail. Over 2.5 rounds wins only if the fight passes the halfway mark of round 3, which is 2:30. A finish at 2:29 of round 3 is an under. A decision is always an over.

Worked example: Over 1.5 rounds at -150. A $75 bet wins $50 if the fight lasts past 2:30 of round 2.

Fight goes the distance

A yes/no bet on whether the fight reaches the judges. “Yes” wins on any decision, including a split or majority decision. “No” wins on any finish.

Method of victory

Pick how the fight ends: KO/TKO, submission or decision. Many books combine it with the fighter, for example “Fighter A by submission”, at a much bigger price than the moneyline.

Exact round

Pick the round the fight ends in, often with the winner attached. Fighter A to win in round 2 might be +500. A $20 bet wins $100.

Grouped rounds

Some books group rounds, such as “Fighter A to win in rounds 1-2” or “rounds 4-5” in a five-round main event. You give up some payout in exchange for a wider window.

Fighter props and specials

Beyond rounds and methods, books post fighter-level props on bigger cards: total significant strikes, takedowns landed and knockdowns. They settle on official UFC statistics, so the stat provider’s count is what matters, not your own scorecard.

What happens if a UFC fight is a draw?

Rules vary. At many books a draw voids a 2-way moneyline and refunds your stake, while some books offer a separate 3-way line with the draw priced as its own outcome. Check the house rules before you bet.

How often does the favorite win in UFC?

Favorites win most UFC fights, but upsets are common enough to matter.

In a Covers review of UFC fights from January 1 to March 31, 2022, based on closing lines:

Even with that record, betting every favorite lost money in that sample: Covers had all favorites at -5.73 units. Winning two-thirds of your bets is not enough when you pay heavy prices for the winners.

Covers also found that half of the big favorites’ wins came by finish.

Parlays of UFC favorites: the math

Stacking favorites is a popular UFC play. Three fighters at -300 each combine like this:

• Decimal odds: 1.333 × 1.333 × 1.333 = 2.37
• Parlay price: +137

A $100 ticket wins $137, but only if all three win. One upset, which the table above shows happens around 1 time in 9 even for -300 favorites, kills the whole ticket. More in our parlay betting guide.

Canceled bouts and late replacements: how bets settle

If a bout is canceled, bets on it are normally voided and stakes returned. If one fighter is replaced, most books void bets placed before the change, because it is a different fight. Some books also have time limits: a fight postponed beyond a set window may be voided even if it later goes ahead.

Live UFC wagering: between the rounds

UFC is well suited to live betting. Books update the moneyline and round props in the one-minute break between rounds, when the fight is paused.

Worked example: you think a wrestler will fade after a slow first round. Pregame he was -200. After losing round 1 on the feet he drifts to +110. If your read hasn’t changed, you can now back him at plus money.

Prices often lock while the action is on, so the break between rounds is your main window. Watch the fight, not just the app: a fighter who is cut, limping or breathing hard can tell you more than the data feed.

Live bets are authorized under New York’s sports wagering law. See our live betting guide for cash out and hedging math.

Where to watch UFC in 2026: the streaming change

UFC’s US broadcast model changed in 2026. Paramount took over US rights in a seven-year, $7.7 billion deal. UFC 324 on January 24, 2026, was the first live event on Paramount+, and subscribers watch numbered events at no extra cost, replacing the pay-per-view model ESPN used, according to Axios.

For bettors, that means every main card is available on one streaming service. If you plan to bet live, check your stream is running before the main card starts.

Making money on UFC: bankroll and discipline

Nobody can promise profits. These habits give you the best chance of staying ahead of the margin:

1. Bet in units. Fix a unit at 1% to 2% of your bankroll and keep it there. With $500, a unit is $5 to $10.
2. Bet less of the card. A card has a dozen or more fights. Pick the two or three where you have a real view, and pass on the rest.
3. Shop every price. UFC lines vary more between books than most markets.
4. Watch the weigh-ins. A fighter who misses weight has spent fight week cutting hard. It doesn’t decide the fight, but it is information.
5. Respect short prices. At -500 you risk $100 to win $20. One loss erases five wins.
6. Track results by market. You may find you beat the moneyline but lose on method props, or the reverse.

Set deposit and time limits on your account. Our responsible gambling page explains NY’s tools, including voluntary self-exclusion.

Best New York apps for MMA wagers

All 8 live NY mobile sportsbooks post UFC moneylines, and most offer round, method and live markets. Compare them on our best NY sportsbooks page.

• FanDuel and DraftKings: the two largest books in New York, with 76% of 2025 revenue between them, according to Casinobeats.
• BetMGM: Edit My Bet lets you change selections on an open bet before it settles.
• Caesars: UFC bets earn Caesars Rewards credits.
• Bally Bet: runs on the Kambi platform, which gives a different set of prices to compare.

New to American odds? Our moneyline betting guide covers the conversion in full.

UFC betting FAQ