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Build an NBA Betting Model and Make a Winning Strategy

How to Build an NBA Betting Model and Make a Winning Strategy

Just as there are many layers to building a successful basketball team, building an NBA betting model that works will also involve a number of steps. 

For starters, it’s best to narrow your focus when betting on the NBA online. With 32 teams, following all the action is going to prove quite time consuming. Pick an element to make your pursuit. It might be totals, it could be betting on home underdogs. It’s entirely up to you. 

Once that focus is established, the next step is to do a deep dive into the data. For instance, let’s say you opt to put the emphasis on betting NBA totals. Do the math, put together charts. If the Washington Wizards are playing the Detroit Pistons, you should have the raw data on whether their games generally go over or under at your fingertips. Break it down even further to see the outcome of games in each team’s arena. The more you know, the better your chances to win. 

Another important factor in any NBA betting model will be your budget.

How much discretionary income do you have available to bet on roundball?

This amount should be determined before a first bet is placed and must be adhered to religiously. As well, eliminate emotion from the equation. Bets shouldn’t be made on the spur of the moment but only after careful and well thought out research.

You should never wager more than 5 percent of your entire bankroll on one bet. Thus, if you have a betting budget of $500, then your maximum bet should be no more than $25.

How To Make An NBA Betting Strategy

When it comes to assembling an NBA betting model to follow and hopefully bring success to your wagering endeavors, first, it’s important to understand that developing a successful NBA betting model is no simple process. It’s going to take time and effort.

Getting Started

It’s easy to get overwhelmed by all the available data that is out there referencing the NBA and its member teams. The challenge for the bettor is to determine which stats are worth pursuing and which are just noise. 

It’s best to stick to what you know and perhaps just as importantly what you find that you are passionate about. Maybe that’s 3-point shooting averages. It could be betting on home underdogs. Whatever the case, find a trend, and study it until you know the data inside and out. Use that info to create a predictive model for NBA betting with New York online sportsbooks, use promotions to boost odds and increase your chances.

Remove Emotion For The Equation

You may want to bet on the NBA because you love the game and that’s fine. However, don’t bet on something because you love it. Just because you’re an avid Los Angeles Lakers fan, if the data indicates they are going to lose to the Golden State Warriors, then that’s the bet you must play.

Allowing emotion to rule your wagering or betting as a fan will soon separate you from your money. Bet with your head, not with your heart.

Manage Your Money

There’s an old saying about if you use your cents wisely, the dollars will take care of themselves. We’re not certain about it but we think this adage was first spoken by a sports bettor.

Budgeting wisely is vital in any successful NBA betting model. Firstly, establish how much you can put aside to bankroll your betting. Secondly, never bet more than 5-10 percent of that bankroll 

Thus, if you set your bankroll at $1,000, the absolute most you should ever place on one bet is $100, or 10 percent of your total bankroll. Set your bets in advance and stick to that gameplan. Accept that you will lose and when you do, stay on point. Don’t spend good money chasing bad. 

Key Stats To Compare When Betting On NBA Games Online

The beauty of the internet is that information is more easily accessible today than ever before. That aspect is creating an invaluable tool when it comes to NBA betting and sports betting in general. There is a vast amount of data that can be analyzed before placing a wager.

However, this fact of life also brings to mind the famous quote from Winston Churchill about there being lies, damn lies and statistics. How do you separate the wheat from the chaff?

Let’s look at some NBA stats that can prove invaluable to NBA bettors

Three Point Shooting

Clearly, the NBA game has evolved to a point where the teams that shoot threes well are collecting the majority of the wins. Teams are opting to fill out their lineups with smaller, quicker players who can get into open space and nail the shot from beyond the arc.

That being the case, it’s vital to know not only which teams shoot the three but which among those teams shoot the three well.

Turnover Rates

With the game being played at such a faster pace, protecting the ball is even more vital than in past years. Just as winning the special teams battle is a trend that is often a tell in NHL betting, the teams that commit the fewest turnovers in an NBA game are the winners far more often than not.

Possession Metrics

It’s hard to win the game if you don’t have the ball. That’s why measuring the number of possessions a team averages over the course of a game is another valuable bit of information. 

It’s simple, really. The more a team holds possession of the ball, the more likely it is they will be scoring points. 

Doing your homework will always pay dividends in NBA betting. Which teams are strong at home and which ones play effectively on the road? Knowing the NBA schedule inside and out is a given. Is a team nearing the end of a weary road trip, playing a day game after a night game, or known for bouncing back with a win following a loss?

Photo by Ramiro Pianarosa on Unsplash

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