It was the late, great master of song Meat Loaf who once warbled that two out of three ain’t bad. When betting on UFC favorites, Mr. Loaf certainly had himself a point. Favorites don’t win every UFC bout. However, they do win more than their fair share.
What Stats Say?
Overall, statistics on UFC betting are revealing that the favorites come out on top around 66 percent, so just around two out of every three bouts contested go the way of the fighter who was pegged to do so in the UFC betting line. Between 2013-2022, there were 4117 UFC fights contested. Favorites won 2709 fights, while the underdog emerged as the winner on 1408 occasions. In percentage data, that’s a 66-34 percent split of favor of the favorite.
Interestingly, inside the octagon, one weight class that is defying these UFC betting trends in the flyweight division. In this grouping, almost 80 percent of bouts are captured by the betting favorite.
Is Current Champion A Betting Favorite?
Take note of this particular trend – be wary of title bouts in which the reigning champion is not the betting favorite. That’s happened 19 times over the past 17 years. In those 19 bouts, the underdog champion went on to retain their belt a dozen times. Frankie Edgar managed to do this twice.
Here’s another interesting stat – in rematches, the winner of the first bout also wins two out of every three bouts. Generally, the winner of the first bout will also be favored to take the rematch.
You can bet on UFC underdogs and absolute favorites at several NY legal betting sites and apps, such as BetRivers and BetMGM. Use sportsbook promo codes to claim free bets on an upcoming UFC event, place bets, also in-play.
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